Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia

A new poll from the Australia Institute poses many a hard question on the potential for conflict with China.

The Australian has today published a Newspoll result of state voting intention in Victoria, which I have added as an introductory note to my earlier post covering general electoral developments in the state. I am not sure what the deal is with Newspoll’s federal polling – plainly it has not returned to its earlier schedule of a poll every three weeks, as there would otherwise have been one on Monday.

We do have two new attitudinal polls from the Australia Institute, one posing an array of stimulating questions on the potential for conflict with China. This encompassed both an Australian sample of 1003 and a Taiwanese sample of 1002, the survey work being conducted by international market research firm Dynata.

Among many other things, the Australian end of the survey found 47% expecting a Chinese armed attack on Australia either soon (9%) or “sometime” (38%), with only 19% opting for never and 33% uncommitted. Twenty-one per cent felt Australia would be able to defend itself from China without international assistance, compared with 60% who thought otherwise, and 57% anticipate such support would be forthcoming from the United States compared with 11% who didn’t and 19% who opted for “it depends”. Thirty-five per cent would back the US and Australia to win such a conflict compared with 8% for lose and 26% for a draw of some description.

Thirty-seven per cent felt the Australian people would be prepared to go to war if China threatened military action against Australia, effectively equal to the 38% who thought otherwise. Twenty-six per cent were prepared for Australia to go to war to help Taiwan gain independence compared with 33% who weren’t and 41% for uncommitted. Framed a little differently, 14% strongly agreed and 23% less strongly agreed that Australia should “send its defence forces to Taiwan to fight for their freedom … if China incorporated Taiwan”, compared with 20% for disagree and 9% for strongly disagree.

The Taiwanese end of the survey is beyond this site’s scope, thought it’s interesting to note that 41% felt optimistic with respect to the future for Taiwan compared with 40% for neutral and only 20% for pessimistic. The survey was conducted between August 13 and 16 – Nancy Pelosi’s visit was on August 2 and China’s military exercises followed from August 4 to 7.

A second report from the Australia Institute provides results of a poll conducted back in April on the seemingly less pressing subject of “wokeness”, a concept that meant nothing to 43% of those surveyed, ranging from only 22% of those aged 18 to 29 to 59% of those aged 60 and over. Forty-nine per cent of the former cohort owned up to being woke, decreasing with arithmetic precision to 9% for the latter, while around 30% for each of the five age cohorts identified as “not woke”. Interestingly, Coalition and Labor voters produced similar results, with Greens and One Nation voters deviating in the manner you would expect. The poll was conducted from April 5 to 8 from a sample of 1003, so the sub-sample sizes for the results cited above are not great, however intuitively likely the results might be.

• Anthony Galloway of the Sun-Herald identifies possible successors to Scott Morrison in Cook: Mark Speakman, moderate-aligned state Attorney-General and member for Cronulla; Melanie Gibbons, state member for Holsworthy, who unsuccessfully sought preselection for the Hughes at the federal election; Carmelo Pesce, the mayor of Sutherland Shire; and Alex Cooke, identified only as a “party member”.

• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has called for submissions to its inquiry into the 2022 federal election. Matters specifically touched up on by the terms of reference include political donation and truth-in-advertising laws, enfranchisement of New Zealand citizens living in Australia and “proportional representation of the states and territories in the parliament”, the latter seemingly referring to the possibility of adding extra seats for the territories in the Senate.

• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a “quick guide” on the technicalities of when the next federal election might be held, together with a handy calendar showing when state and local elections are due through to 2006.

• No fewer than twelve candidates have nominated for Western Australia’s North West Central by-election on September 17, with Labor not among them, for a seat with only 11,189 voters. As well as the Nationals and the Liberals, there are two candidates of the Western Australia Party, one being hardy perennial Anthony Fels, plus the Greens, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis, Liberal Democrats, No Mandatory Vaccination, the Small Business Party and two independents. My guide to the by-election can be found here.

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe

My wife tipped me off about Homo naledi recently. Given how much hype there was about the “hobbits” (H. floresiensis), like her I don’t know how have we hadn’t heard about this before.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homo_naledi

This public lecture was put online in May 2022, but is timestamped April 2017. It’s well worth a look, but those that are claustrophobic might want to look away during the cave videos.

How Homo Naledi is Changing Human Origins | University Place

John Hawks, Professor in the Department of Anthropology at UW-Madison, discusses new findings related to the Homo naledi fossils found in the Rising Star cave system in South Africa. Hawks reports that the fossils indicate this primitive, extinct, human relative may have been in existence as recently as 236,000 years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLJVHgCZmzI

C@t, Yes, that’s the link I meant to post about the GG and ‘inconsistencies’.

Ronni Salt is really worth following on twitter. I noticed GG and BB are also active on twitter

No surprise here…explains Morrison’s absence during the first week of Parliament . https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/scott-morrison-accepting-cash-payments-for-speaking-gigs/news-story/4f7d0b2326d70246b9f679523cab0fa8

And on that thread , a valid question is posed: ‘Note he has listed Margaret Court’s church as a source of significant payment to him – an organisation that his government donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to. How is that not corruption? Seems little short of money laundering. ’

The Dawn Patrol is coming.

Someone will need to do the cartoons though.

Quasar @ Saturday, August 27, 2022 at 6:00 am

Reverse laundering. First, start with clean money…

So what did the redacted affidavit say:

The FBI said the government was therefore “conducting a criminal investigation concerning the improper removal and storage of classified information in unauthorised spaces, as well as the unlawful concealment or removal of government records.

“There is probable cause to believe that the locations to be searched at the PREMISES contain evidence, contraband, fruits of crime, or other items illegally possessed,” it continued.

https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/fbi-reveals-why-it-raided-donald-trumps-maralago-home/news-story/cc88ff632915e2fdf4a2b03bbd9682d3

Morrison may have acted unlawfully in the secret ministries scandal, writes Karen Middleton. https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/08/27/exclusive-morrison-may-have-acted-unlawfully-secret-ministry

The inquiry into SfM’s secret ministries is announced. Anthony Albanese has said it would be “extraordinary” if Scott Morrison did not cooperate with an inquiry into his secret ministries, warning compulsory powers could be used if he refuses. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/26/pm-says-it-would-be-extraordinary-if-scott-morrison-doesnt-cooperate-with-secret-ministries-inquiry

Opposition claims tradies in the firing line from gig economy reform. Remind me again what they said about the death of the weekend with the uptake of EVs! https://www.smh.com.au/technology/opposition-claims-tradies-in-the-firing-line-from-gig-economy-reform-20220826-p5bd20.html

John Hewson wonders at Dutton going MIA in the Morrison ministries scandal, and says that the PM was left with little choice but to announce an inquiry given the strength of the conclusions by the Solicitor General. https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/08/27/where-dutton-morrisons-secret-ministries Defence Minister Richard Marles says the nation’s top military leaders breathed a sigh of relief when he overturned his predecessor Peter Dutton’s controversial ban on LGBT morning teas and other inclusive events. Rather than distracting from core business, Marles said promoting inclusivity would strengthen Australia’s defence capabilities by helping attract a diverse talent pool and ensuring the military reflected modern Australia. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/richard-marles-military-celebrated-end-of-dutton-s-war-on-wokeness-20220826-p5bd3n.html Australia must turn itself into a “porcupine” island fortified with enough lethal weaponry to deter an attack from a hostile rival, Defence Minister Richard Marles has warned in a stark illustration of the dangerous strategic environment the nation faces. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-to-be-a-porcupine-marles-says-australia-must-project-lethal-force-20220826-p5bd3x.html

Australians have thrown their support behind Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on his central pledge on climate change while rejecting the Coalition on the issue in a boost for the government as it reaches its first 100 days in power. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-back-albanese-on-climate-as-labor-reaches-first-100-days-20220826-p5bcxw.html

Scott Morrison received token payments for speeches and plans to join global lecture circuit https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/26/scott-morrison-received-token-payments-for-speeches-and-plans-to-join-global-lecture-circuit

Great article from Mega George about Albo’s cleanup from the previous government. I maintain that Labor should’ve done this in 2007. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/send-in-the-cleaners-spare-us-the-overkill-albanese-s-delicate-dance-20220826-p5bcy2.html

Paul Bongiorno writes that the coalition is on the wrong side of so many issues prosecuted by the Albanese government, and that it has been careful planning and staging by Albo to make this so. https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/08/27/hawke-handsaw

Far from being sidelined, Tanya Plibersek has been tasked with a monumental challenge: steering Australia’s response to the unfolding environmental catastrophes https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2022/september/chloe-hooper/tanya-plibersek-s-hostile-environment

Parnell McGuinnes says we were lucky to have SfM as PM. I thought this was a sketch piece, but apparently not! 😆 https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-were-lucky-to-have-scottyfrommarketing-as-pm-20220826-p5bcxs.html

Does an inquiry into Morrison’s secret ministries risk taking focus off more pressing issues? asks Paul Karp https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/26/does-an-inquiry-into-morrisons-secret-ministries-risk-taking-focus-off-more-pressing-issues

The Greens have declared they will push for additional pay rises for workers on the minimum wage and those in women-dominated industries in exchange for supporting any legislative proposals stemming from the government’s jobs summit. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-27/greens-want-pay-rises-or-women-and-minimum-wage-earners/101378224

A royal commission is set to review Robodebt. Its legacy is still hanging over Centrelink recipients today. An excellent move by the government to end this pernicious platform and bring some justice to those maligned and mistreated by it. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-27/robodebt-royal-commission-scars-linger/101375170

You can always tell a government in decline: the scandals and dramas just keep coming! https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/john-barilaro-charged-with-assault-and-malicious-damage-20220826-p5bd3o.html

And coming… https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/jobs-for-the-boys-voters-send-warning-over-barilaro-trade-scandal-20220825-p5bcw3.html

And coming… https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/how-minister-s-sacking-led-to-building-commissioner-s-resignation-reversal-20220826-p5bd0n.html

And coming! (Or not if it’s a Sydney train.) https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/elliott-warns-of-radical-options-if-rail-dispute-not-resolved-soon-20220826-p5bd1g.html

Will Chris Minns be the next NSW Premier and does he have what it takes to do so? https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/labor-saviour-does-chris-minns-have-what-it-takes-to-be-premier-20220824-p5bcis.html

Raising the salaries of childcare workers is the real fix for this industry, says Virginia Trioli. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-27/big-hole-in-premiers-plan-for-free-preschool/101378546

The largest piece of the puzzle about why FBI agents searched former president Donald Trump’s residence is out: the affidavit submitted to warrant the search. In its full form, this usually sealed document spells out exactly what FBI agents thought was hidden at Mar-a-Lago and what crimes may have been committed. But the version the Justice Department released to the public Friday is heavily redacted. Here’s what we were able to glean about the investigation — and still have to learn. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/26/takeaways-redacted-affidavit-trump-search/

Murdoch v Crikey: How a mere 804 words became a test case that could run into the millions https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/murdoch-v-crikey-how-a-mere-804-words-became-a-test-case-that-could-run-into-the-millions-20220824-p5bccs.html

As questions ricochet around Scott Morrison’s secret ministerial powers, a rhetorical one hovers above: Why is anyone surprised? writes Karen Middleton. There’s been a pattern to Morrison’s activities for years, even just those we knew about. It goes to a disregard for proper process, a whatever-it-takes attitude to securing and wielding personal power, a disconnection between words and actions, and a propensity to dissemble and operate away from the light. https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/08/27/scott-morrison-the-naked-emperor

PvO and Hugh Riminton discuss the jobs for the boys and the Morrison ministries in their latest podcast. https://omny.fm/shows/the-professor-and-the-hack/episode-127-jobs-for-the-boy

As the Jobs Summit gears up, this piece in the AFR argues that business today can learn from the 1980s. https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/why-business-needs-to-learn-from-the-1980s-20220824-p5bci1

Jim Chalmers has released Treasury analysis downplaying the employment contribution of mining, highlighting the industry hires a relatively small share of workers compared to the “care” workforce. https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/chalmers-talks-up-care-work-downplays-mining-in-new-analysis-20220826-p5bd2w

What might the first speeches of our new MPs tell us about the parliament, and careers, ahead, writes Sean Kelly. https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2022/september/sean-kelly/how-read-first-parliamentary-speeches

One thing about life is that’s invariably filled with missed opportunities and it’s no different for Gladys. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/devastated-the-day-berejiklian-didn-t-take-her-shot-to-be-premier-20220824-p5bcgb.html

Thousands recreate the Wave Hill walk-off, originally led by Vincent Lingiari, at the Freedom Day Festival in Kalkarindji https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-27/nt-freedom-day-march-56th-anniversary-wave-hill-walk-off/101379052

Thanks Fess, great job on the Dawn Patrol.

I take my hat off to BK for doing this 7 days a week, year in, year out. I didn’t realise quite how time consuming it is. And I haven’t even gone to some of the subscriber-only sites that he posts!

Well done Confessions- and yes BK’s daily efforts are really something. Hopefully he’s enjoying the serenity this weekend.

Thanks, ‘fess. I feel your pain. 😆

I’ll throw a few links in myself from some of the sites that aren’t there but BK usually goes to. I’ll also go do the cartoons. 🙂

Confessions @ #12 Saturday, August 27th, 2022 – 7:03 am

I take my hat off to BK for doing this 7 days a week, year in, year out. I didn’t realise quite how time consuming it is. And I haven’t even gone to some of the subscriber-only sites that he posts!

I’ll give you a hint. He usually starts the night before when new articles start being dropped. 🙂

Confessions – Nice work! max – I hope the fish are as prolific as is the level of anticipation here !

Thanks, that makes sense. I also don’t know how he posts it all in one comment. I had to separate into two comments to get them to post!

David Speers is joined by Phil Coorey, Anna Henderson and Peter van Onselen to discuss this week’s Jobs and Skills Summit, fallout from the secret Morrison ministries scandal plus a Royal Commission into the robodebt scheme

Guests : Jennifer Westacott And Sally Mcmanus

Thanks Fess, just adding: who’d have thought the disgraceful Morrison government would hang an Australian Icon out to dry during the pandemic by providing little financial support?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/25/qantas-ceo-blames-little-government-help-and-covid-for-lagging-peers.html

And here are the pictures that paint a thousand words for today: (I’ll do it in a few parts because it’s a lot!)

Here are some from Michael Leunig, who we haven’t seen in a while:

Some Simon Letch musings: Shaping the Future #1

Many thanks for your efforts with the dawn patrol and enjoy your fishing trip !

Heading out myself tomorrow in what should be mint conditions (finally!) Out of coffs. Am aiming a little higher than KGW and flatties though, namely kingfish round the islands before heading out towards the shelf chasing googley eyed deep water critters like pearlies, bar cod and blue eye

Hopefully some good #fishingonPB reports on Sunday night or Monday morning!

Good Morning Dawn Patrollers or Fishers. UK Cartoons: Dave Brown: The original Christian Krohg:

a) “expecting a Chinese armed attack on Australia” b) Prepare for the expected armed attack from China by going through a significant build up of military capacity. c) Adopt an aggressive stance against China. d) Quickly react against China using any excuse. e) Defend Taiwan. f) Threaten China from Taiwan. g) China attacks Australia…..

Thanks, Fess and C@t.

Aren’t the unemployed, sub-employed, precariat oh so excited with the Tories promising all those tax cuts?

Matt Golding Signs of a Shortage

And now to ferret out some American cartoons. 🙂

Bandt threatens to derail jobs summit

The Greens leader says he will scuttle summit outcomes unless demands for an immediate minimum-wage hike and higher pay for women are met.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-27/greens-want-pay-rises-or-women-and-minimum-wage-earners/101378224

Good on Adam Bandt for telegraphing his moves before he makes them. 😐

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.

Repository of links to past election guides and poll trends for previous terms.

The publisher of this site, William Bowe, is conducting paid consultancy work ahead of the federal election for Climate 200, which is helping fund independent candidates who support policies to promote renewable energy and mitigate climate change.